Shumchanka: Several exchange rates will not save small-scale business
Even if the National Bank legalizes “the shadow ruble exchange rate” and provides the interbank market with foreign currency,
it will not save private entrepreneurs.
According to the head of the civil association “Prospect”, Anatol Shumchanka, only legal entities will be able to buy foreign currency at the stock exchange.
Entrepreneurs are physical entities and they can buy foreign currency only in currency exchange offices. They will not be affected by “the legalization”: the exchange rate in currency exchange offices will remain about 3100 rubles for one dollar – the rate that nobody wants to sell American dollars at nowadays.
Anatol Shumchanka: “I think that the foreign currency problems will not be solved within at least one month. Entrepreneurs will have a hard time. They will have to look for foreign currency somewhere. I do not exclude that some “shadow” money- market will be created soon. Who will be involved? It will be economic agents of different levels in the first place”.
Even the expected Russian $3bn credit will not help in this situation, thinks Shumchanka. First of all, according to official sources, “the issues” will be discussed within a month. Moreover, it is unlikely to be allocated immediately – there may be tranches.
Speaking about the possible devaluation, Shumchanka says that it has already taken place de facto! The prices for food and other goods have increased: sellers have already “recalculated” the exchange rate. According to the expert, the authorities may organize a “forced” devaluation now and accuse entrepreneurs of it.
Anatol Shumchanka: “I do not exclude the variant that everything will be presented the way that entrepreneurs will be blamed for everything – small, medium and large-scale. They may say: “Look! We tried to preserve the exchange rate and they have organized the devaluation, they have recalculated everything, they have caused the default!” However, all the prices for food and other good are set by hypermarkets and shops. Entrepreneurs do not set such prices. They may sell for 3300 and not for more than 3500”.
He says that most of them are incurring losses. At the same time, hypermarkets are using the exchange rate of 3700 and more. And they are closely connected with the state, says Shumchanka.
