Shautsou: Russia is not likely to be busy with Belarus

Alyaksandr Lukashenka paid a two-day visit to Moscow where he took part in the meetings of the EuroAsEC and of CSTO leaders and in an informal meeting of CIS leaders. Euroradio has discussed it with political scientist Yury Shautsou.
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Yury Shautsou: The visit is not that significant. Significant decisions were taken on November 25 when Belarus and Russia signed agreements concerning the whole range of issues that interested Belarus. The agreements are being fulfilled now. There are a lot of pitfalls and some problems concerning security issues are being solved.

Euroradio: Can Russia continue exercising pressure on the official Minsk to get more concessions, for example, in the issue of privatization of Belarusian enterprises?

Yury Shautsou: I am not sure that it may be relevant now. Russia has begun its pre-election race and it has turned out that it will not be easy. On the other hand, the events in Kazakhstan (mass riots in the west of the country that lead to casualties, - Euroradio) look very disturbing in the field of security of the three states – Belarus-Russia-Kazakhstan. Russia is likely to pay more attention to the south and its internal problems so it is not going to be busy with its policy regarding Belarus.

Euroradio: What does it mean for our country? How can we make use of the situation?

Yury Shautsou: It is essential that the agreements reached on November 25 should be realized now. They give us the financial opportunities Belarus would not be able to get in the West… We can receive 7 billions within a year. It can solve all the financial problems that have been so important the whole year.


Euroradio: So, do you think that we should not expect any activities in Minsk-Moscow relations because Russia will be busy with its election and other countries?

Yury Shautsou: I do. It will be so if there is no crisis. However, there may be a crisis. The war in Iran is the biggest threat now. There can also be a crisis connected with North Korea and something incomprehensible may happen in Central Asia.
 

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