Marek Bućko: Lukashenka will soon run out of candidates for expulsion

Euroradio: The EU's decision on sanctions was softer than expected. Why did Belarus react so harshly? 

Marek Bućko: Lukashenka, as usual, wants to show that he is not afraid of any EU sanctions and is ready to act vigorously. He also wants to show that sanctions will have reverse effect on his policies. The stronger they get, the harsher will be his reaction. He wants to create such an impression in the EU. On the other side, Alexander Lukashenka knows that the MFAs of the EU countries, including Polish MFA, don't like their diplomats being expelled. They can agree with many measures but they are especially nervous about this particular one. The reason for their reaction is bureacracy: officials do not like to leave their posts. However, I would not overestimate the importance of this development. I'd call it a "diplomatic fray", or "mini-war". The EU diplomats cannot do much in their current conditions in Belarus anyway - and I refer here to several years of my personal experience. So, there will not be many changes. I would regard this gesture as a rather symbolic one. 

Euroradio: In your opinion, why did they expel the Polish diplomat? 

Marek Bućko: Belarusian government has explained it quite clearly: this is related to minister Sikorski's comments about Belarus. This is also their reaction to the acts of the country that very actively supports the fight for human rights in Belarus. Polish MFA is really active in this sphere. So, Alexander Lukashenka decided to hit Poland, since this is his main enemy in the field of support to the victims of repressions or human rights activists. Still, this gesture is rather symbolic, and it will not cause any practical consequences. There is no practical sense in recalling the Belarusian ambassador from Warsaw, either. Actually, it is good news, since we demanded his leave many times anyway.

Euroradio: Why? 

Marek Bućko: His presense in Warsaw created the illusion of normal diplomatic relations in the situation when instead of normal relations we have political prisoners. It is counterproductive to create such an illusion in this situation. We cannot have any diplomatic relations with such a state!

Euroradio: What will be Poland's reply to the expulsion of its diplomat from Belarus "for consulatations", speaking mildly? 

Marek Bućko: In sports terms, we have a draw now: 1:1. The EU adopted sanctions -  Lukashenka answered by expelling diplomats. I wonder if the situation of 2007, when diplomats from boths sides were expelled one by one, repeats. Will this script repeat, or will the EU decide that this is a 1:1 situation and no additional measures should be taken? We'll see. I can't think of any significant steps that the EU or Poland could make now - except for extending the economic sanctions or the visa ban list. We have to think seriously about the introduction of trade embargo. It would be an effective strategy, since Lukashenka would soon run out of options from expulsion from Belarus, while the visa ban list of his officials could be extended endlessly. The potential of the EU in the sphere of sanctions is much higher than the one of Belarus.

Euroradio: So, Poland will not attempt to make it 2:1..?

Marek Bućko: It's difficult to predict something in the current situation. I think that Poland will not do anything independently, it will coordinate its efforts with the EU. The decision will be taken in Brussels, not in Warsaw. 

Euroradio: What about Belarusians who want to get Polish visas?

Marek Bućko: Visas are not the ambassador's business. There will be no new problems with them. The old one will stay, though - such as long queues in Brest consulate. However, the consulate does not depend on the embassy. The consul and consular services continue to work in a usual mode, since their function is rather technical. So, if Lukashenka wants to end this confrontation between Poland and Belarus, he will not expell the consuls. Still, during the last diplomatic tow in 2005 he expelled the consul from Minsk as well.