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Belarusian pundits forecast dollar exchange rate in 2016
The Belarus budget 2016 is based on the annual US dollar exhchange rate at the level of Br18600. Euroradio asked various economists to forecast the rate at the beginning, in the middle and at the end of the year.
Vadzim Yosub, senior analyst at Alpari
Beginning of the year: 18 500
Mid-year: approximately 1.97 (after denomination or 19700 if zeros are kept).
End: 2,05 — 2,15 (20 500 — 21 500)
“I think the Belarusian ruble will continue dropping against the currency basket approximately proportionally to inflation, which can be realistically contained in the borders of 12%. The concrete US dollar rate will be defined by the correlation between USD, Euro and RUR. The concrete rate will depend on how weaker or stronger the US dollar will be at external markets."
Beginning: 18 300
Mid-year: 1,90 — 1,95 (19 000 — 19 500)
End: 1,95 — 2,0 (19 500 — 20 000)
Leanid Zaika recalls Vanga's forecasts about US's financial falure in 2016. The ruble will definitely become stronger in this case. However, none of compatriots expects that.
“If Vanga's predictions do not come true, the rate at the beginning of the year is already known - 18 300. In mid-year, there will be denomination and the rate will be 1,90 — 1,95. At the end of the year, when the boys from the financial department at the University of Economics who sit at the National Bank will be shaking in front of Lukashenka, the rate will be 2 rubles. If not, one dollar will cost 1,95."
Early: 20 500 — 21 000
Mid-year: 2,30 (23 000)
End: 3,30 (33 000)
Yarasalu Ramanchuk compares exchange rate predictions with the score prediction at the semi-final match of the European football championships next year. Nevertheless, he shares his relative figures, which he describes rather as a joke not as a serious forecast.
Some economists are not eager to make predictions for the dollar exchange rate next year, For example, Siarhei Zhbanau calls such predictions swindling.
He does not dare to make a prediction.
Aliaksandr Sinkevich admits it gets harder to answer this question every year. However, he agrees to make some predictions:
“There wll be no significant changes in the currency corridoe of the Belarusian ruble in the next 2-3 months. It will slowly crawl down to 20 000. In my view, by the mid-year the rate should get devalued by 20-30%. This is in case demand and supply at the crude oil market will not change. It means the Russian ruble will continue falling and we will have to adjust the consuming power of the Belarusian ruble. It will mean 20-30% by the mid-year. By the end of the year, devaluation will either stop and ruble will grow cheaper by another 10% after the oil and world market gest stable, or there will be dramatic consequences of the crisis in Russia. Then, the collpase acn be more significant than even in the first six months."
Leanid Zlotnkau reckons the rate for 2016 is a relative thing as it depends on numerous factors:
“If there are loans, there will be one rate. If there are no loans, the rate will be different. If there are no loans from IMF and Russia or there is only a loan from only of them, the rate will be around 24 000 - 25 000 by the end of the first quarter. Really, so much depends on all these 'ifs", it makes no sense to ask about it."
Heorhiy Hryts fears to name the exact fugures:
“I can only say that 18 000 rubles mentioned in the budget will not make the dollar next year," sums up the economist.
Euroradio will return to this story one year later.