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Mood of state officials may swing not in Lukashenka's favor
Government House in Minsk / Euroradio
The mood of the current state officials and the situation in Belarus may change due to the fact that Lukashenka is not going to leave his post until death. Independent analyst Syarhei Chaly believes that Lukashenka became more convinced of this after the events in Kazakhstan. even though the rhetoric was different after the 2020 elections.
"The old-timers realized that they must stay there until death".
"It's very hard to make predictions right now. The new situation is the realization of the old-timers that you have to stay put until the end, to the death, no transits.
Nazarbayev is gone, and they don't even call him by his name anymore. On January 11, Tokayev spoke in parliament. He was talking about Nazarbayev, he didn't even mention his first or last name.
This is a new situation, including in Belarus. We do understand that Lukashenka promised not only to go "outside". He also promised it inside the country to a great number of people who are still forced to keep their jobs. That was the point of the deal with the devil: "Well, bear with me a little longer." "This term is definitely the last one," the circular Democrat told us as he explained the new Constitution.
We see that it isn't. It's about something else. It's about "I want to last forever." And that's the problem. Goldfish can only grant wishes up to a certain point. And how the realization that Lukashenka dumps not only strangers but also his own people, will affect the mindset within the system. It is a very interesting issue.
"The suffering of political prisoners is a monstrous situation, but it is not the main factor".
Against this background, the democratic forces should not be guided by any deadline, said Syarhei Chaly.
"Just because he says he wants to stay until 2025 does not mean that he can stay until 2025. Lukashenka is putting a spell on reality".
There is only one strategic goal [for the democratic forces - Euroradio]. And it is much more profound than replacing Lukashenka with someone else. People say to me, "They [in Kazakhstan - Euroradio] succeeded in dismissing the government. And? The Krylov quartet is playing the same tune again.
The goal is actually democratization. The creation of a normal system in which the law works, the people in power change, the laws work for everyone equally. There is no deadline. Every tactical step is worth calibrating with this in mind.
Recently there has been a feeling that the scope is being thrown off. That's why the following ideas surface: the main thing is to secure the release of political prisoners. No, the main goal is the democratization of the country.
It is clear that the suffering of these people [political prisoners] is a monstrous situation. But do they want to get out at the price of turning the page, of the same situation remaining when the same number of people could easily be in their place? Maybe some would. I understand they were asked this question by the Round Table Democrats. Somehow we don't see many people willing to write petitions for clemency.