Russia to launch 'black balloons' to Belarus during elections
Andrei Fyodorov, former Russian deputy foreign minister and currently the director of the Consulting -- Center for Political Studies, tells Euroradio who the Belarusian leader is at information war with, whether Vladimir Putin is unforgiving and when Lukashenka is to go to Moscow to find peace. Euroradio: What is your assessment of the current status of the information war between Russia and Belarus?
Andrei Fyodorov: I would say there is no war yet. Whatever is taking place now should be better called a quarrel. Since these are somewhat one-off actions, there is no yet a system from the either side. The biggest problem is this quarrel is bringing confusion and putting doubts over numerous positive things in relations between Russia and Belarus. And, the saddest thing from my point of view is that all these publications are used for domestic politics -- not for solving regional or even international issues. But such quarrels cannot last for long. In two or three weeks, this issue will be sorted out.
E: Other experts suggest that the situation has reached the edge when it will be very hard for Lukashenka to find peace with the Kremlin.
AF: Actually, he did not fall out with the Kremlin! He stresses that he fell out with the White House (Russian Government) -- not with the Kremlin. Alexaxnder Lukashenka is a clever and cunning politician. He is behaving skillfully with the Kremlin. Basically, he has no claims against the Kremlin. But he does have claims against the Russian government. These are different things.
E: Do you think that the return to a peaceful co-existence is totally possible?
AF: I reckon life will force each other to speak normal language in the near future. There will be a need to reach agreements for the next year and to carry out several other initiatives. One should not forget that whether we want it or not, Russia will need Belarus' support in a wide range of projects, including the reform of OSCE and others. Finally, a wise solution will be found here. The most important it is not to turn the quarrel into a war. When at war, they often burn and destroy bridges. This has not happened so far.
E: You served at the foreign ministry for many years. Based on your experience, what is the cause of this misunderstanding between our countries?
AF: In my view, the reason is that the Russian political elite has a double attitude towads Alexander Lukashenka. On the one hand, they realize his might as the president of Belarus or as the rule of Belarus. On the other hand, they are fancying that if they push him a bit, he will step down. What happening are the attempts to shake Alexander Lukashenka, to check his political durability and fortitude. I mean the forthcoming presidential elections. It will be very difficult for Lukashenka to prepare for this election, because Russia will be launching 'black balloon" into Belarus from time to time. But, one should look at the situation with Belarus and understand the cost of the issue.
One can treat Lukashenka and what he does differently, but the loss of Belarus as Russia's ally will be a catastrophe. Belarus should be Russia's ally, regardless of who leads the country. Instead, by our actions, we often fall out with Belarus and its people -- not Lukashenka.
E: Is Vladimir Putin unforgiving?
AF: I wouldn't say he is an unforgiving person. But, he has an excellent memory of what he did, what he was told and what he said. That's definitely true. And, this is an objective reality that he is the strongest politician in Russia now. Realizing his statu as premier and a politician, he naturally cannot accept quietly the harsh criticism -- especially when it is not always justified.
E: Can he forget easily everything that is voiced against him?
AF: In politics, one can forget everything in five minutes. If you have an interest, you can forget everything and make friends with your opponent. Belarus is too precious for Russia from various points of view to treat it in a negative and emotional way. Belarus is Russia's main road to the West: railway, highways, Kaliningrad. Everything is linked with Belarus.
E: Will Kremlin have its favourite during the presidential polls in Belarus?
AF: I don't believe in it, because he or she is physically non-existent. At least, I don't known such a person. I reckon the opposition will coordinate to put forward a couple of candidates. Perhaps three candidates, but not five, seven or ten. This is possible.
E: If Lukashenka again gets an 'elegant victory', will he be recognized both in the West and East?
AF: Definitely. The most important thing for the East and West now is the legitimacy of the elections. I have no doubts the polls will be legitimate. Firstly, Belarus learned how to conduct elections. Secondly, in the build-up to the election, Lukashenka will allow to voice the dissent more than before. Opposition will be free to hold rallies and to express itself, but it will not affect the electorate greatly. Even if the opposition candidate gets 10-15 percent, this will be the best solution for Lukashenka. If the opposition gets 3-5 percent, it will be bad.
Photo by Zmitser Lukashuk
Andrei Fyodorov: I would say there is no war yet. Whatever is taking place now should be better called a quarrel. Since these are somewhat one-off actions, there is no yet a system from the either side. The biggest problem is this quarrel is bringing confusion and putting doubts over numerous positive things in relations between Russia and Belarus. And, the saddest thing from my point of view is that all these publications are used for domestic politics -- not for solving regional or even international issues. But such quarrels cannot last for long. In two or three weeks, this issue will be sorted out.
E: Other experts suggest that the situation has reached the edge when it will be very hard for Lukashenka to find peace with the Kremlin.
AF: Actually, he did not fall out with the Kremlin! He stresses that he fell out with the White House (Russian Government) -- not with the Kremlin. Alexaxnder Lukashenka is a clever and cunning politician. He is behaving skillfully with the Kremlin. Basically, he has no claims against the Kremlin. But he does have claims against the Russian government. These are different things.
E: Do you think that the return to a peaceful co-existence is totally possible?
AF: I reckon life will force each other to speak normal language in the near future. There will be a need to reach agreements for the next year and to carry out several other initiatives. One should not forget that whether we want it or not, Russia will need Belarus' support in a wide range of projects, including the reform of OSCE and others. Finally, a wise solution will be found here. The most important it is not to turn the quarrel into a war. When at war, they often burn and destroy bridges. This has not happened so far.
E: You served at the foreign ministry for many years. Based on your experience, what is the cause of this misunderstanding between our countries?
AF: In my view, the reason is that the Russian political elite has a double attitude towads Alexander Lukashenka. On the one hand, they realize his might as the president of Belarus or as the rule of Belarus. On the other hand, they are fancying that if they push him a bit, he will step down. What happening are the attempts to shake Alexander Lukashenka, to check his political durability and fortitude. I mean the forthcoming presidential elections. It will be very difficult for Lukashenka to prepare for this election, because Russia will be launching 'black balloon" into Belarus from time to time. But, one should look at the situation with Belarus and understand the cost of the issue.
One can treat Lukashenka and what he does differently, but the loss of Belarus as Russia's ally will be a catastrophe. Belarus should be Russia's ally, regardless of who leads the country. Instead, by our actions, we often fall out with Belarus and its people -- not Lukashenka.
E: Is Vladimir Putin unforgiving?
AF: I wouldn't say he is an unforgiving person. But, he has an excellent memory of what he did, what he was told and what he said. That's definitely true. And, this is an objective reality that he is the strongest politician in Russia now. Realizing his statu as premier and a politician, he naturally cannot accept quietly the harsh criticism -- especially when it is not always justified.
E: Can he forget easily everything that is voiced against him?
AF: In politics, one can forget everything in five minutes. If you have an interest, you can forget everything and make friends with your opponent. Belarus is too precious for Russia from various points of view to treat it in a negative and emotional way. Belarus is Russia's main road to the West: railway, highways, Kaliningrad. Everything is linked with Belarus.
E: Will Kremlin have its favourite during the presidential polls in Belarus?
AF: I don't believe in it, because he or she is physically non-existent. At least, I don't known such a person. I reckon the opposition will coordinate to put forward a couple of candidates. Perhaps three candidates, but not five, seven or ten. This is possible.
E: If Lukashenka again gets an 'elegant victory', will he be recognized both in the West and East?
AF: Definitely. The most important thing for the East and West now is the legitimacy of the elections. I have no doubts the polls will be legitimate. Firstly, Belarus learned how to conduct elections. Secondly, in the build-up to the election, Lukashenka will allow to voice the dissent more than before. Opposition will be free to hold rallies and to express itself, but it will not affect the electorate greatly. Even if the opposition candidate gets 10-15 percent, this will be the best solution for Lukashenka. If the opposition gets 3-5 percent, it will be bad.
Photo by Zmitser Lukashuk
