Russia expects new concessions from Belarus in exchange for oil?

A demand to ratify an agreement on the supplies of the Russian crude oil is just a formality, reckons the journalist from Kommersant. It is legally suffice to Russia that the agreement was signed.

If lawmakers fail to have the agreement ratified by February 15, Belarus will not be able to import the crude duty-free, the Russian daily Kommersant reported today.

But Dmitry Butrin, an observer from the same newspaper, reckons that Russia will be ready to disregard all these formalities in exchange for other concessions from the presidential administration of Belarus. He said:

“I think that the signed agreement is legally sufficient for Russia. It means there are minimum technical problems here. Moreover, the legal system of Belarus is much more flexible in this regard.

There is a second layer of negotiations and it is quite open. The moment the other problems have been sorted out, it will turn out that there is no need for ratification, because it could be replaced with a presidential edict”.

Belarusian economist Siarhei Chaly reckons that before Belarus ratifies the agreement, oil will be imported with the 100% customs duty like now. The Russian government needed ratification to be on the safe side and be confident that Belarus would not change the deal:

“Our delegation managed to sign such documents that mean our total capitulation. When back home and having realized it was not advantageous, they began looking for some loopholes. Naturally, Russians tried to close all those loopholes very quickly.

Our negotiators hoped that the country would endure with 6.3 million tons of duty-free oil through July 1. But when the Customs Union comes into full force, they hoped to agree on duty-free supplies and receive evrything without duties.

But Russia made it clear to us that it is not going to happen. They told us: if you don't get this deal ratified, you will not see duty-free oil at all”

Meanwhile, the Belarusian parliament will hardly be able ratify this agreement, as the spring session opens in April. The parliament is unlikely to gather for an extraordinary session, the press office of the House of Representatives told the European Radio for Belarus.

Under the deal signed on January 27, Russia is offering a quota of 6.3 million tons of oil to be supplied to Belarus duty-free for domestic use. Some sources suggest that Belarus initially asked for 20 million of crude oil duty-free.