Experts outline how a Russian attack on a NATO country could unfold

European countries expect provocations in the region in the near future. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that "Russia is preparing for an escalation of tensions both in the war with Ukraine and across the entire region." It is likely that CIA Director John Ratcliffe raised this topic in Moscow during a meeting with senior Russian security officials. The Baltic states, and Latvia in particular, may face aggression from Russia.

On Euroradio livestream, Ukrainian analyst Ihar Tyshkevych ruled out the likelihood of a full-scale attack, but did not rule out "playing the card of Latvia's so-called non-citizens or the Russian-speaking minority" on the part of Russia.

He reminded listeners that "Putin prefers precisely these kinds of hybrid conflicts." 

— Let us remember: the war against Georgia was an "operation to compel peace", and the war against Ukraine in 2014 was "we are not there". Since 2022 — "a special military operation", — says Tyshkevych.

What might such a scenario look like? A retired Polish military pilot, participant in UN peacekeeping missions UNPROFOR and UNIKOM, and military analyst Michał Fiszer described the possible course of events.

"Imagine the following scenario. There is unrest in a country — Latvia, for example. The local pro-Russian population begins to riot and demand their rights, because at present they are 'non-citizens'. They cannot purchase property, cannot open a business, and voting rights are not even worth mentioning. And suddenly this population raises its head. Unrest begins, fights, demonstrations, and a harsh response from the Latvian police. The conflict flares up intensely, attracting significant interest from all of Europe. What on earth is happening there? What is going on? Why are some Latvians rioting against other Latvians?" — Fiszer describes the beginning of the conflict.

Then drones start flying in, the expert continues. 

"One, a classic FPV, destroys a police car. Another drone kills Latvian police officers. Yet another, a somewhat larger bomber drone, drops a combat payload on the vehicle yard in a barracks, causing a fire among the vehicles gathered there.

The incidents cause a powerful shock. They are written and talked about in the news across all of Europe. NATO forces are placed on the highest alert. But who is sending these drones? Russia?" — Europeans will begin to ask themselves.  

Special international teams examine the recovered debris, but it turns out that these are drones assembled from Chinese, publicly available components purchased on AliExpress, Michał Fiszer continues to develop the scenario. 

"The explosives are homemade. Yes, professionally prepared, but made from publicly available components, also available in Latvia. And what does this mean? 

There are no traces of Russian activity, apart from radio transmissions from their side of the border — but is this transmission definitely connected to the drones? It is recorded daily, on the days when drones are not flying too. What solid evidence do we have that these drones originate from Russia?" — the expert asks.

Meanwhile, the spiral of conflict intensifies.

"Enraged Latvians who have lost loved ones in these mysterious attacks take revenge on the Russian minority. In response, the number of drone incidents multiplies, the country sinks into ever greater chaos, and larger craft also begin to appear, flying in from the direction of Russia and Belarus, but it turns out to be impossible to definitively establish their origin — whether they are Russian or possibly Ukrainian. 

They contain parts used in Russian drones, but also parts typical of Ukrainian ones. And the design is somehow unknown — like a new airframe, an engine in the form of a Chinese-made piston engine, also available on trading platforms. The navigation system layout is typical of drones used by both Russia and Ukraine" — Fiszer predicts the situation. 

The drones cause enormous damage, destroying energy infrastructure, fuel supplies, and paralyzing railway stations. Small FPV drones attack military personnel, police, and services with increasing frequency and boldness. In practice, a war is underway in the country, but no one knows against whom, Michał continues to develop the scenario.

"Of course, everyone believes that Russia is clearly behind all this. But what is the hard evidence? Essentially none — there are various circumstantial clues, very strong ones, all manner of them, but still only circumstantial. NATO defence ministers are engaged in animated discussion: what should be done? Are we certain that Moscow is involved in this at all? Are we certain that this war is really being waged by Russia? And is this an armed act of aggression by a foreign state, or interference in what is effectively a civil war?