Europe, Belarus: Who makes next move

"We decided to give Belarus the green light," Jacek Protasiewicz, a member of the European Parliament, explains the EU's position. "We gave them a chance for six months. We are aware that they are not democrats, but hope they will be able to assess benefits."

"They" are the Belarusian authorities that have seized the opportunity. The EU turned a blind eye to Belarus' flawed parliamentary election and lifted an entry ban on all but five blacklisted officials. Poland cut national visa fees. Belarus released what the West called political prisoners but has not made any other steps to democratize the country.

Dzyanis Melyantsou, a political scientist with Vilnius-based European Humanities University, says the EU has made the concessions because its policy of sanctions failed. "There were also economic reasons. EU business circles, in particular London City and German businesses are interested in privatization in Belarus. Naturally, there are also geopolitical reasons – the EU attempts to woo Belarus away from Russia's orbit."
Political analyst Andrei Suzdaltsev says the Belarusian government seeks closer ties with the EU hoping for generous handouts.
Protasiewicz says that the EU insists on changes to Belarus' repressive Media Law, Electoral Code and regulations governing non-governmental organizations.
"I would like to have a reason to offer my friends in the European Parliament to extend the thaw for another six months or a year," he told Euroradio. I think the EU can survive without Belarus. Problems of the current authorities in Belarus may be greater than it seems. Therefore democratic changes should be carried out in the three areas."

Political commentator Yury Chavusau says that the release of political prisoners is not indicative of a transformation of Belarus' political system, noting that the authorities have not repealed a single criminal article that enables them to persecute dissidents. Take for instance the clause that stipulates jail sentences for involvement in an unregistered organization.
"One should not have illusions that the fact that no one is serving time for an offense against this article is a sign of progress on the part of the Belarusian authorities. The article remains an effective tool to intimidate society. Unregistered organizations have no access to people and exist in a pro-democracy ghetto."
EU politicians realize that the Belarusian authorities are reluctant to open politics up but the EU keeps trying to engage with Belarus.

Jean-Eric Holzapfel, charge d’affaires of the European Commission’s delegation to Belarus, considers such an approach well-grounded. He says the EU has just adjusted its strategy to a new context.

But how long will it last? Minsk has not yet made any democratic changes. It waits for the EU to offer it financial guarantees and reserves the right to scramble back into Russia's orbit. The EU made several concessions and waits for the authorities to react.
Who will make the next move?

As it gets colder outside, the need for cheap gas becomes greater that the need for cheap Polish visas.

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