Expert: Kremlin may use force if Minsk does not sign EurAsEC agreement

The agreement on the Eurasian Economic Union should be signed by the end of May. However...

“We cannot sign the agreement to our own detriment,” Alyaksandr Lukashenka claimed during his visit to the joint Belarus-Chine enterprise BelGee on May 3.

Why would Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan refuse to sign the agreement?

There are five economic reasons why our country may refuse to do it, Belarusian economist Yaralsau Ramanchuk thinks.

Yaralsau Ramanchuk: “If they do not allow processing at least 12 million tons of oil without having to pay the duty to the Russian budget, it will be a great reason not to sign the agreement. If Russia does not guarantee that the Russian authorities will consider the products of the Belarus-China industrial park as Belarusian instead of ‘originating from third states’ – Belarus will have no need to sign the agreement either. Russia should agree to give a credit, modernise the military complex and organize the export of Belarusian goods for at least $2 billion. Belarusian companies should also be guaranteed the right to take part in Russian state tenders.”

 It is necessary to insist on the economic benefits of the agreement, the expert believes. However, the risk of the Kremlin’s negative reaction should also be taken into account. Russian ex-Minister of the Economy Evgeni Yasin agrees with his colleague.

Evgeni Yasin: “Moscow will try to realize the project by making concessions for Belarus and Kazakhstan. Sometimes it may use force. It will not be done immediately. But it will look natural: they will tell you that you should either buy oil at a certain price or sell more property. I cannot predict what means will be used for it but there are always such opportunities for the stronger side.”

Russia could find a lot of excuses and refuse to sign the agreement too, Euroradio’s interlocutor thinks. However, this is the Kremlin’s strategic project and it will not refuse from it. It will do anything to sign the agreement. And it will be signed. All Lukashenka’s ‘poses’ are only meant ‘for domestic use’.

Evgeni Yasin: “Lukashenka said it to Belarusian citizens. He wanted to explain what terms were favourable for Belarus and what opportunities it had. Lukashenka and Nazarbayev may delay the agreement a bit and it will not be easy. But it is always like that when such agreements are signed by authoritarian regimes that do not want to lose their power.”

By the way, the issue of power (not the oil duties) was the main reason why Kazakhstan could refuse to sign the EurAsEC agreement, expert of the Asian Research Institute Alma Sultangaliyeva told Euroradio.  

Alma Sultangaliyeva: “Kazakhstan maintained its stand and opposed to enhancing political integration – it was against supranational bodies. At the same time, Russia kept stressing that it did not mind them to be created right away.”

Astana’s ‘desire’ was taken into account. The other issues like oil duties and the cost of passenger traffic will be settled gradually after the agreement is signed, Alma Sultangaliyeva thinks. Only some force majeure may disrupt the signing of the agreement, the Kazakhstani expert thinks. And the force majeure is not about the issues the Belarusian President mentioned to his future voters.

Photo: Zmitser Lukashuk, www.1tv.ru