Will higher gas prices cause crisis in Belarus?
What gas price could be critical for Belarus? Experts suggest that even $500 per 1000 cubic meters (an average European price for the Russian gas) is not catastrophic for the Belarusian economy.
The price of the Russian gas for Belarus in 2009 can be set at around $250 per 1000 cubic meters, Russian ambassador in Minsk Alexander Surikov said in a statement. At the same time, the average price of the Russian gas for Europe will amount to $500 per 1000 cubic meters, according to a statement from the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom. Meanwhile, the government in Belarus has envisaged the gas price of $140 for the 2009 budget, while borrowing $2 billion as a stabilization loan for the seller.
The European Radio for Belarus asked eonomict Mikhail Zaleski what gas price could be critical for Belarus. According to the expert, we would be able to cope with even $500 per 1000 cubic meters.
Zaleski: "The price higher than the world costs could be critical. Yes, we would still endure $500 (per 1000 cubic meters). Our economic growth is currently 10-11 percent; it will be 0.3 percent annually. Later, we will have to carry out restructurization, privatization and tighten our belts. This is not human, but it is better in the long-term perspective than being on someone's grip, waiting when you will be cut off. When they lend, we will have to pay back pater. We have borrowed enough; paying the loans requires $1 million annually, beginning from 2009. We can borrow more, but will have to pay back $2.5 billion annually.
Zaleski believes that large petrochemical comanies will be affected the most by higher gas prices, e.g. the Hrodna-based Azot, which consumes 10 percent of the total amount of gas in Belarus. How will this affect ordinary Belarusians?
Zaleski: The low-income population groups will reduce consumption. Households with higher income will redistribute their budgets towards the fuel expenditures. That's it.
Polish petrochemical analyst Andrzej Szczesniak said in an interview with the European Radio for Belarus as follows:
"Large petrochemical enterprises will be affected mainly. This price growth leads to the situation when enterprises seek an alternative to gas, e.g. transforming coals to gas fractions. Every price growth makes our chemical industry less competitive. It is hard to say which gas price could be unbearable for Poland... An one-off gas price increase will not cause an ecnomic crises in Poland but can cause the lack of mutual understanding in terms of delivery volume. I hope that negotiations on this matter next year will become successful".
biznes.onet.pl reports that Poland pays Russia $300 per 1000 cubic meters. Mr Szczesniak says that Poland pays more.
"It is difficult for me to name the exact price. Gas price here is a matter of the state secret. It is a bad situation, because mistery make disussions about the gas price more complicated. The export price of the Russian gas is between $400 and $500. It means that it is slighly lower but not as low as $300. When Gazprom raise the average price for Europe up to $500 as it promises, this will not cause a crisis in Poland. Higher prices mean that the Polish gas sector is not developing and consuming power of the population decreases significantly.
Photo: photo.bymedia.net
The price of the Russian gas for Belarus in 2009 can be set at around $250 per 1000 cubic meters, Russian ambassador in Minsk Alexander Surikov said in a statement. At the same time, the average price of the Russian gas for Europe will amount to $500 per 1000 cubic meters, according to a statement from the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom. Meanwhile, the government in Belarus has envisaged the gas price of $140 for the 2009 budget, while borrowing $2 billion as a stabilization loan for the seller.
The European Radio for Belarus asked eonomict Mikhail Zaleski what gas price could be critical for Belarus. According to the expert, we would be able to cope with even $500 per 1000 cubic meters.
Zaleski: "The price higher than the world costs could be critical. Yes, we would still endure $500 (per 1000 cubic meters). Our economic growth is currently 10-11 percent; it will be 0.3 percent annually. Later, we will have to carry out restructurization, privatization and tighten our belts. This is not human, but it is better in the long-term perspective than being on someone's grip, waiting when you will be cut off. When they lend, we will have to pay back pater. We have borrowed enough; paying the loans requires $1 million annually, beginning from 2009. We can borrow more, but will have to pay back $2.5 billion annually.
Zaleski believes that large petrochemical comanies will be affected the most by higher gas prices, e.g. the Hrodna-based Azot, which consumes 10 percent of the total amount of gas in Belarus. How will this affect ordinary Belarusians?
Zaleski: The low-income population groups will reduce consumption. Households with higher income will redistribute their budgets towards the fuel expenditures. That's it.
Polish petrochemical analyst Andrzej Szczesniak said in an interview with the European Radio for Belarus as follows:
"Large petrochemical enterprises will be affected mainly. This price growth leads to the situation when enterprises seek an alternative to gas, e.g. transforming coals to gas fractions. Every price growth makes our chemical industry less competitive. It is hard to say which gas price could be unbearable for Poland... An one-off gas price increase will not cause an ecnomic crises in Poland but can cause the lack of mutual understanding in terms of delivery volume. I hope that negotiations on this matter next year will become successful".
biznes.onet.pl reports that Poland pays Russia $300 per 1000 cubic meters. Mr Szczesniak says that Poland pays more.
"It is difficult for me to name the exact price. Gas price here is a matter of the state secret. It is a bad situation, because mistery make disussions about the gas price more complicated. The export price of the Russian gas is between $400 and $500. It means that it is slighly lower but not as low as $300. When Gazprom raise the average price for Europe up to $500 as it promises, this will not cause a crisis in Poland. Higher prices mean that the Polish gas sector is not developing and consuming power of the population decreases significantly.
Photo: photo.bymedia.net
