Hihin: I expected they wouldn't be released till parliamentary election

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Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s promise to release some of the political prisoner looks like an attempt to get out of a diplomatic conflict, says political analyst Yury Shautsou. However, even if this is true, the official Minsk makes no concessions to the EU by this release.

Yury Shautsou: "If the condition for their return is the satisfaction of political prisoners’ appeals for release, then there are no significant concessions from Lukashenka’s side. Sannikau’s appeal was lying on Lukashenka’s table before the conflict began. Most likely, he will satisfy this appeal. "

Shautsou is convinced that this release will become the ground for gradual return of the EU states ambassadors to Minsk. So, until they return there is no hope for a start of broad diplomatic negotiations and relations between Minsk and the European capitals. Moreover, the political scientist thinks that we don't need it that much: we have great results of the external trade for the last two months. If such situation remains unchanged, than we don't need "hugs" with the political Europe much.

The President’s statement about the possible release of political prisoners has led political analyst Vadzim Hihin to confusion. According to him, it would have been politically wiser to release them closer to the parliamentary election.

Vadzim Hihin: "On the whole, I did not expect that they would be released until the Parliamentary election. Probably, it wasn't reasonable, when you consider every step. As there will be a certain escalation during the Parliamentary election, so after it there might be some warming of the relations and certain steps towards each other might be taken". 

The diplomatic war, says Hihin, might have had certain influence on the decision to release political prisoners, but not directly. Like, there is a normal legal procedure for release: filing an appeal for release, checking whether this appeal has been filed voluntarily, a session of the Pardon Commission etc.

This political scientist does not expect the European Union to take any steps in response to the prisoners' release.

Vadzim Hihin: "No one is going to abolish the sanctions, the escalation of the conflict will happen closer to the Parliamentary election. We can say it even now that the EU will not recognize the election regardless of how it will be conducted". 

According to him, Minsk has allowed Brussels to save face and return their ambassadors to Belarus, taking advantage of this release. However, there won’t be political and legal rehabilitation of the released, according to Hihin.

We expect nothing from the EU - neither credits, nor kisses. The European politicians understand this clearly, adds Shautsou, and they will take concern rather about the release of all of them, not about the rehabilitation of the already released. 

Yury Shautsou: "Most likely, he will not release all of them, so the issue of release of those people who are considered political prisoners by the West will remain actual. The rehabilitation issue is a secondary one".

Political analyst Yury Chavusau does not agree with Euroradio’s previous interlocutors. He is convinced that the desire to get out of the diplomatic war, the pressure of the U.S. and the EU on the official Minsk and their tough position forced Lukashenka to take this step. However, analyst Uladzimir Matskevich recalls the parliamentary election.

Uladzimir Matskevich : "This is a game, tightening the situation in order to take some decorative liberal steps before the election and to trade certain preferences for the regime this way".

The political scientists agree that the European diplomats will return to Minsk in the near future. However, Minsk should not count on something else.

Uladzimir Matskevich : "The situation is tightened to such an extent that only the release of several people will not amend the European policy, the European attitude to Belarus".

Especially, if there is no political and legal rehabilitation of the released. In Matskevich's opinion, this is not a secondary issue for Europe. But Lukashenka will not go for it.