Professor Ioffe on Belarus: 'Sitting on two chairs no longer infidelity'

The international conference "Minsk Dialogue" - understanding of international security in Belarus" was held in Minsk on May 5th. There were well-known experts with high positions from the USA, Europe, Belarus.

"We will first and foremost analyze the western direction of the international security of Belarus, therefore, for example, there are no Ukrainian experts at the conference - mostly Western," explained the head of the expert initiative "Minsk Dialogue" Yauhen Preiherman.

Nevertheless, I found in the program the name of the Russian expert from the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies Andrei Skriba.

From the start, the tone for understanding of international security in Belarus was set by the President of the US Jamestown Foundation Glen Howard.

"Belarus is now described in various ways, and I think it is very important to consider the independence, sovereignty and balance, which Belarus maintains between the two centers of power. Geopolitics is now better than ever, I even think that this is the beginning of a new geopolitical period for Belarus, which will continue to be very intense. Another thing important for the countries - members of the NATO, the Baltic countries, such neutral countries such as Sweden and Finland is that Belarus plays a big role in their security, that  Belarus, in particular, plays an important role in the Baltic region."

Therefore, concludes the expert, the West needs to treat Belarus with attention and respect. Glen Howard's subordinate, senior researcher of Jamestown Fooundation Vladimir Socor, who was the first to speak with a full report, quickly narrowed the focus: "My report was entitled "Understanding Belarus in the West", but I have to change it to "Misunderstanding Belarus in the West". And he continued to surprise throughout the speech.

"Through this misunderstanding, the West began to treat Belarus as the last dictatorship in Europe, which was an inappropriate theory - it did not take into account the development of an independent Belarus and the unique role of President Lukashenka as a guarantor of the Belarusian independence," Socor accused the West.

As a result of this attitude, the American expert continued, angrily staring from behind the glasses at those present, the EU and the United States found themselves in a situation where they had a lack of relations with the Belarusian authorities. Hence - the lack of information "on the internal development of the country", the inability to build a constructive relationship. Only now, said Vladimir Socor, the West understands the importance of relationships at the highest level. The expert makes an unexpected conclusion: "The most important things are the state and independence, and then goes democracy as a result of evolutionary processes." And then he again praised Lukashenka the way local fans of his never did...

Vladimir Socor: "The role of President Lukashenka resembles the role previously played by the people who built national states from scratch -- such as Joseph Pilsudski in Poland, in Czechoslovakia, Tomas Masaryk, Mustafa Ataturk in Turkey today - Eldar Aliyev in Azerbaijan. I put Aliaksandr Lukashenka in the gallery of national leaders and state founders. The neutrality of Belarus is a major contribution to the security of Ukraine and the Baltic countries. The main priority is to preserve the independence and sovereignty of Belarus as a state, it is inseparable from the role and activities of President Lukashenka."

 

The need to "preserve the independence of the sovereign Belarus" was also highlighted by the Belarus program director of the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation Wolfgang Sander. According to him, Belarus' involvement in the confrontation of Russia and the West is not in the interests of either of them. But what do we have today happening on the backdrop of the NATO growing presence in the Baltic countries?

Wolfgang Sander: "Russia confronts us with the fact that she will be placed in response battalions, including Smolensk. That surprises me, because Smolensk is about Belarus and not near any of the NATO countries. A recent discussion on the possibility of placing the Russian Air Force base in Belarus reveals the potential consequences for Belarus this spiral of reciprocal arms. And then the question: how long Belarus will be able to stay out of this confrontation, not taking the side of one of the centers of power?"

In general, according to German expert, deployment of the new Russian military on the territory of Belarus "increases the risk of accidental war."

But how long Belarus will be able to sit on the geopolitical split, asked Professor of the Us-based Redford University Grigory Ioffe. He also praised the head of state: he both kept Belarus from the fate of today's Ukraine - from the chaos which resulted in the desire of the Ukrainian authorities to sit on one, European, chair - and reaped economic benefits for the country out of this situation. In short, the American professor's report shows that only the turncoat policy today is the most correct one.

Ioffe: "Sitting on two chairs no longer means infidelity. This is very important for national survival of Belarus. And I am sure that Belarus will feel very comfortable on two chairs".

Such was the atmosphere of the support of the official Minsk actions in the international arena. Listening to the speakers, you begin to understand the fundamental approach of the Belarusian officials towards international issues. Deputy Foreign Minister of Belarus Valyantsin Rybakou, in response to a question about the West expecting political reforms in Belarus, says the same thing: "We will not tolerate any external pressure." This is it.

Valyantsin Rybakou: "Let them expect what they want! We will do what is necessary, what is beneficial and necessary to Belarus and the Belarusian people and not any other countries, their government or the people. Let them take a closer look at our actions, at our contribution to the security issues - both the regional and global. we will not do anything under the dictate of anyone else!"

Photo Zmitser Lukashuk