Opinion poll returns match election results

The abolition of social benefits has not affected the electoral behaviors of Belarusians. During 14 years of Lukashenka's rule, pro-democracy candidates are supported by only a quater of population of Belarus. The same thing happened during the recent parliamentary polls, the Independent Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Studies told the European Radio for Belarus.

Usevalad Yancheuski, an aide to the Belarusian president, said recently on Vybar television talk-show that "public opinion polls confirm that the election was legitimate". In other words, the reports of pollsters match the outcome of the election.

The European Radio for Belarus called the Independent Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Studies. Sociologist Siarhei Nikalyuk confirmed that the figures voiced by Mr Yancheuski were correct.

Nikalyuk noted that there were two public opinion poll. The first question was: which candidate are you ready to vote for?

“43.5 percent of respondents said they supported pro-Lukashenka candidates; 19.6 percent expressed backing to his opponents. 21.9 percent would vote for another candidate”.

There was also another poll which listed the features of candidates:

“Imagine that during the parliamentary election, you have to select one of the listed candidates. Who would you vote for?”

In the words of Siarhei Nikalyuk, 16.9 percent said they would vote for an MP. The same number of people were ready to vote for a top manager of the state-owned enterprise. An entrepreneur who runs his own business received 15.6 percent. A NGO leader or an activist got 12.9 percent. Finally, a leader of the political party received 8.8 percent.

On the whole, this trend has remained over the past 14 years. It was repeated during the recent elections, according to the expert:

“By and large, around 26-30 percent of the Belarusian society support pro-democracy candidates. I think the same thing happed during this election as well”.

Political commentator Yury Shevtsov also tells ERB that the results of the election match the real weight of the opposition. Moreover, he believes that opposition candidates received too many votes:

“Even the official figures are inflated for the Belarusian opposition. In some districts, they received 10-15 percent or even 20-25 percent. It is extremely a lot for an opposition candidate. We do not have protest voting in this country. Therefore, the figures like 10-15-20 percent for opposition candidates can be achieved by a huge struggle of political parties. With the turnout of 75 percent, this is huge figure and it reflects the real weight of the opposition”.


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