Matskevich: Belarusians to enforce peace in the ‘union state’
Ukraine’s President Victor Yuschenko complained in an interview with Times that Russia did not wish to withdraw the Black Sea fleet from the Crimea. The Poles fear the Russians, too. They quickly signed a deal with Americans to deploy the elements of the US missile shield on the Polish territory. In the view of Roman Yakovlevsky, a Belarusian commentator, it is too late for Belarus to fear, because it has already “been attached to the Russian military”. Who is next? Political analyst Uladzimir Matskevich shares his views in an interview with the European Radio for Belarus.
ERB: What kind of projects a-la Abkhazia and Ossetia can take place in Russia?
U.M: Crimea is the most likely and prospective. As for the issue of Russian passports and citizenship, this initiative was put forward as far back as in 1991 by Latvia’s Interfront. Back then, Russia began considering the Russian-speaking residents of Latvia as Russian citizens. This delayed bomb exploded in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This threat remains for several Russian-speaking enclaves in Latvia and Estonia. However, they are more or less protected by their EU and NATO membership. On the contrary, Crimea is an explosive territory, because Moscow and the Kremlin have a lot of plans there. Moreover, it is important in terms of controls over the Black Sea.
ERB: Can NATO and the West in general be drawn into a military conflict?
U.M: NATO has a rather peace-loving leadership and a thought-out long-term policy. Therefore, I do not think that they can end up in a military conflict. On the other hand, the Caucasus is as much complicated region as the Balkans. Islamic fundamentalism could also contribute to the conflict there, apart from ethnic and territorial claims. The situation can become absolutely unpredictable. Belarusians must understand that if Medvedev’s plans are implemented and the union state is expanded at the cost of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Belarusian soldiers will have to take part in those “enforcements to peace”.
Alexander Kwasniewski, Poland’s former president and renowned international mediator, appealed to the leaders of the West as follows: “Failure to include Ukraine and Georgia to the NATO Action Plan gives a totally false signal. It is equal to a silent recognition of dividing Europe into spheres of influence. We cannot appease to the legend that Russia possesses a certain status of control which suppresses the rights of its neighbors. That was the main goal of the conflict in Georgia. We must resolutely refute it by using the principle of the European policy regardless of the deterioration of relations in a short-term perspective.
Photo: Kommersant
