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Joerg Forbrig: Lukashenka does not even have his own country
Belarusian military see no occupants / Defense Ministry of Belarus
Even in the current situation, Joerg Forbrig, one of the best experts on Belarus from the West, sees positive scenarios for our country.
"I am sure that Russia will not be able to win this war [in Ukraine]," he says in an interview with reform.by. "This is Afghanistan for Putin. I think this war will put an end to Putin's regime, perhaps already in the short term. I am quite optimistic".
The expert considers that the fall of Putin's regime is "a matter of two to five years".
Forbrig emphasizes that Belarus "is still occupied by Russian troops." "How independent is he [Aliaksandr Lukashenka]? Not at all," says the expert. "He can play whatever he wants. But, first of all, he was not elected, and secondly, he does not even have his own country. It is occupied".
Joerg Forbrig believes that "weakened Russia will mean the downfall of Lukashenka and the opening of Belarus towards an alternative, hopefully, democratic development. Moreover, "it will also open a window of opportunity for the whole of Eastern Europe," says the expert.
Last year, Euroradio interviewed Joerg Forbrig, senior fellow and director for Central and Eastern Europe at the German Marshall Fund, about the situation in Belarus.