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Expert: Authorities monitor Lukashenka's rating decline
Aliaksandr Lukashenka's rating has dropped again. This is evidenced by the results of the March poll held by the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS) operating in Vilnius.
According to the fresh IISEPS figures, if presidential elections were held today, Lukashenka would get votes of only 27.3% of Belarusians. In September 2015, a month before the last presidential election, his support was as much as 45.7%, and in December, two months after the vote - 33.3%. According to the CEC, on 11 October, Aliaksandr Lukashenka won the election with 83.49% of the vote.
According to the IISEPS, the current rating of Lukashenka is not the lowest in history. The permanent head of state had the worst indicators in March 2002 - 26.4%, and in September 2011 - even 20.5%.
Political analyst Aliaksei Pikulik believes that the government is closely monitoring the actual rating of the President. This is necessary in order to monitor the level of its popularity:
"The authorities want to be popular or create an impression that it is popular. Therefore, the ratings are an important factor in the Belarusian politics --especially the presidential rating. How do the authorities measure the rating?
I am sure that they have their own mechanisms. How accurate these mechanisms are and if the presidents receives the real results is another question."
According to the IISEPS, not only the electoral rating of the head of state but also the confidence rating of Lukashenka have decreased. He si now trusted by 41.7% of respondents, not trusted by 47.4%. In September 2015, these figures were 47% and 37.1%, respectively.
Quite a high percentage of Belarusians are now in favor of the change - up 67.3%. Save the current state of want to just 24.7%. On the other hand, to the authorities consider themselves to be 18% in opposition. In June, the crisis of 2011, this figure was 25.8%.
According to the IISEPS, among the opposition leaders, the highest rating is enjoyed by Tatsiana Karatkevich. She would get 6.9% of the vote now against 15.7% in October 2015. The second most popular was Mikalai Statkevich, whose rating is 2.9%. The rest of the opposition politicians have a rating of less than 1%. Aliaksei Pikulik says it is absolutely normal:
"The opposition, of course, does nothing wrong to the people. Unfortunately, it does nothing good, either. Why is its rating falling? Perhaps, the interest to the opposition occurs during electoral campaigns. The campaign is over, the interest of the opposition declines. This is normal, it is a normal process."
Still, despite a sharp fall, Aliaksandr Lukashenka remains the most popular politician in the country.