Suzdaltsev: “Bell came to Minsk for some other reason but image. It was just an excuse”
A Moscow political scientist Andrei Suzdaltsev has told ERB why special police troops searched the flats and offices of independent Belarusian journalists, when Russia would stop allocating money to support Lukashenka and why Timothy Bell visited Minsk. Russia is being used “to go blind” in the trade with the West
ERB: “An interview with a former deputy Minister of Foreign Affaires of Belarus Andrei Sannikau who is an independent political scientist now appeared in independent Belarusian mass media the other day. He claims that Lukashenka is preparing Belarus “to surrender” to Russia with the help of the rupture of relations with the USA and the European Union. How do you think, it is possible for Belarus to become one more federal district of Russia soon?”
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “There are no plans, no signed agreements on incorporation of Belarus into Russia. It is a very dirty political game. It is a deceit”.
ERB: “What do you think this game is needed for?”
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “In fact there is no rupture of relations between the West, the USA and Minsk. A very complicated trade is being carried out, it is a dialogue. Belarus lacks forcible arguments to prove the necessity of preserving Lukashenka’s regime which would allow him to participate in the presidential elections in 2011 legally and to be elected for the 4th term. So Belarus is using the external factor: “If you do not make concessions – we will go to Russia”. Russia has not been asked about it, it is being used “to go blind” in the game. We are in Moscow and we do not even know that we are being traded. Unfortunately, the opposition also participates in it. It playing on Lukashenka’s side and is helping him to sell his future to Europe”.
ERB: “Will the fact that the Kremlin may understand it is being used “to go blind” have any effect on the relations with the official Minsk?
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “There are a great number of problems between Moscow and Washington and Moscow and Brussels. The Belarusian issue is so scanty and insignificant that Moscow does not even pay attention to it. Maybe it is a right thing to do. It is all about the survival of certain political figures. Speaking about your opposition, I should say they have been promising us incorporation for 14 years, referendums, becoming part of Russia. They are threatening Europe with it and at the same time they are threatening Russia with the West, joining NATO and allocation of missiles. They are balancing between the two forces making them attack one another”.
If the West is interested in Lukashenka’s regime, let them finance it
ERB: “You said the Belarusian issue was insignificant for Russia, however, Russia is spending a lot of money on Belarus and it gives the impression that it is supporting the existing regime this way”.
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “The Kremlin and Moscow are supporting the country. There are 5 or 6 issues specifying the interest of Russia in Belarus. Regardless of the person in power. The main goal is to avoid any serious social and economic crisis on the transit way to Europe…”
ERB: “Do you mean that Lukashenka is a guarantee of peace?”
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “He is still a guarantee in some way. The bad thing he fails to do his job. He is using all he has to preserve his political power and to be elected for the 4th term instead of using it for the good of the country. This is the problem between Minsk and Moscow. The country is getting assistance to avoid problems with our energy transit and Minsk is making it a source of preserving the power of one person. A dialogue between the East and the West is in process now. Russia has not been invited to take part in it. Neither the West nor Minsk that claims to be an ally of Russia have done it. Nice! But somebody has to pay for the dialogue. We know that Moscow will be asked to pay as usual. We will not pay for the political manoeuvres of Lukashenka’s regime directed at the West! If the West, Europe and the European Union are interested in this regime and in the dialogue with it that much let them pay the 8 billion dollars we are giving to the country every year”.
ERB: “Will Russia stop spending money on Belarus when it loses patience?”
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “It is already cutting down on the assistance. It is impossible to do it all at once. It will result in a black hole and a crisis there. Then we will have to render assistance again and it will require much more money. However, the assistance is getting reduced because we have failed to reach a normal integration. Belarus is facing an economic autarchy, there is practically no Russian capital in it – 2 banks and 25% of “Gazprom”’s shares bought from “Beltransgaz”. That’s it! There is nothing else that Russia can buy there. They are selling it to anyone – Turks, Austrians, Saudi Arabians. Anyone but Russians. That is why the decision to reduce grants was taken in December 2006. And it will be stuck to. Moreover, the issue of withdrawal of two infrastructure military bases will be taken within the coming years”.
A serious political dialogue between Lukashenka and Medvedev is impossible
ERB: “They say Medvedev is even more mercantile a politician in comparison with Putin. How may it influence the relations with Belarus?”
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “I think the situation will be smooth at first. It is always like that when a new person enters upon the office. You should take into account the fact that a rotation of the Russian political elite is being preformed now. It is the first time it has happened. This is a very complicated process. However, the ruling and political classes of Russia already have a prejudication against the prospects of cooperation and relations with Belarus. Any President will have to take the opinion into account. In fact they are tactfully loyal to the people and the country and they dislike the regime. It is impossible to conduct a serous dialogue between the first Belarusian President during his third term and the third Russian President during his first term”.
Kazulin – an artificial trump card for the trade
ERB: “Maybe you are aware of the events that took place on March 25 and 27 in Belarus. At first policemen severely dispersed a manifestation dated for the 90th anniversary of establishment of the BPR and then they conducted searches in the flats and offices of independent Belarusian journalists. What do you think it may be connected with?”
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “This is security agencies’ reaction to the dialogue between the West and Minsk. It turned out that some of the government agencies have already “adapted” to the dialogue with the West and are feeling all right about it. Security agencies have turned out to be useless. However, they clearly understand that they have to give their account to the West in the end. They will be to blame for almost 14 years of terror. They will provide for Lukashenka’s introduction to the European political landscape. This is their reaction. Moreover, you say that BT announced they had revealed an American spy network several days before it happened. The spies have not been found. But it turned out that the Belarusian TV was more powerful than security agencies. It was a spit at them. They replied. The opposition found itself between the upper and nether millstone. The bloc oriented at the West promised everything would be ok. The other bloc turned out to be useless. And they will be the ones to give account to the West later. So security agencies decided to beat everyone”.
ERB: “A political prisoner Alyaksandr Kazulin is still in prison. Can he be considered a trump card in Lukashenka’s trade with the West?”
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “Yes he can. However, the card was made artificially. Kazulin is a normal Belarusian political figure who suffered for his views. It is a decent person. Both Minsk and the West made a cult figure out of him, a key to “the regulation” of relations between the West and Minsk. The West will consider the very Kazulin’s release a proof of the fact that Belarus has entered the way leading to democratic changes. If the relations between Lukashenka and Moscow become worse, Kazulin’s release will allow Lukashenka to enter the Western political market and will allow him to get the assistance of the West. He is already trying to blackmail Moscow threatening it with the support of the West. It is a great tragedy because the person is simply being made use of”.
ERB: “How do you think, what did Lukashenka need the famous image-maker Bell for?”
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “He did not come to Minsk because of the image. It was just an excuse. There were other goals and I would not like to comment on them. However, it gave the impression there were some contacts between Lukashenka and a London group of Russian oligarchs. There was such an impression and nothing else”.
ERB: “An interview with a former deputy Minister of Foreign Affaires of Belarus Andrei Sannikau who is an independent political scientist now appeared in independent Belarusian mass media the other day. He claims that Lukashenka is preparing Belarus “to surrender” to Russia with the help of the rupture of relations with the USA and the European Union. How do you think, it is possible for Belarus to become one more federal district of Russia soon?”
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “There are no plans, no signed agreements on incorporation of Belarus into Russia. It is a very dirty political game. It is a deceit”.
ERB: “What do you think this game is needed for?”
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “In fact there is no rupture of relations between the West, the USA and Minsk. A very complicated trade is being carried out, it is a dialogue. Belarus lacks forcible arguments to prove the necessity of preserving Lukashenka’s regime which would allow him to participate in the presidential elections in 2011 legally and to be elected for the 4th term. So Belarus is using the external factor: “If you do not make concessions – we will go to Russia”. Russia has not been asked about it, it is being used “to go blind” in the game. We are in Moscow and we do not even know that we are being traded. Unfortunately, the opposition also participates in it. It playing on Lukashenka’s side and is helping him to sell his future to Europe”.
ERB: “Will the fact that the Kremlin may understand it is being used “to go blind” have any effect on the relations with the official Minsk?
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “There are a great number of problems between Moscow and Washington and Moscow and Brussels. The Belarusian issue is so scanty and insignificant that Moscow does not even pay attention to it. Maybe it is a right thing to do. It is all about the survival of certain political figures. Speaking about your opposition, I should say they have been promising us incorporation for 14 years, referendums, becoming part of Russia. They are threatening Europe with it and at the same time they are threatening Russia with the West, joining NATO and allocation of missiles. They are balancing between the two forces making them attack one another”.
If the West is interested in Lukashenka’s regime, let them finance it
ERB: “You said the Belarusian issue was insignificant for Russia, however, Russia is spending a lot of money on Belarus and it gives the impression that it is supporting the existing regime this way”.
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “The Kremlin and Moscow are supporting the country. There are 5 or 6 issues specifying the interest of Russia in Belarus. Regardless of the person in power. The main goal is to avoid any serious social and economic crisis on the transit way to Europe…”
ERB: “Do you mean that Lukashenka is a guarantee of peace?”
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “He is still a guarantee in some way. The bad thing he fails to do his job. He is using all he has to preserve his political power and to be elected for the 4th term instead of using it for the good of the country. This is the problem between Minsk and Moscow. The country is getting assistance to avoid problems with our energy transit and Minsk is making it a source of preserving the power of one person. A dialogue between the East and the West is in process now. Russia has not been invited to take part in it. Neither the West nor Minsk that claims to be an ally of Russia have done it. Nice! But somebody has to pay for the dialogue. We know that Moscow will be asked to pay as usual. We will not pay for the political manoeuvres of Lukashenka’s regime directed at the West! If the West, Europe and the European Union are interested in this regime and in the dialogue with it that much let them pay the 8 billion dollars we are giving to the country every year”.
ERB: “Will Russia stop spending money on Belarus when it loses patience?”
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “It is already cutting down on the assistance. It is impossible to do it all at once. It will result in a black hole and a crisis there. Then we will have to render assistance again and it will require much more money. However, the assistance is getting reduced because we have failed to reach a normal integration. Belarus is facing an economic autarchy, there is practically no Russian capital in it – 2 banks and 25% of “Gazprom”’s shares bought from “Beltransgaz”. That’s it! There is nothing else that Russia can buy there. They are selling it to anyone – Turks, Austrians, Saudi Arabians. Anyone but Russians. That is why the decision to reduce grants was taken in December 2006. And it will be stuck to. Moreover, the issue of withdrawal of two infrastructure military bases will be taken within the coming years”.
A serious political dialogue between Lukashenka and Medvedev is impossible
ERB: “They say Medvedev is even more mercantile a politician in comparison with Putin. How may it influence the relations with Belarus?”
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “I think the situation will be smooth at first. It is always like that when a new person enters upon the office. You should take into account the fact that a rotation of the Russian political elite is being preformed now. It is the first time it has happened. This is a very complicated process. However, the ruling and political classes of Russia already have a prejudication against the prospects of cooperation and relations with Belarus. Any President will have to take the opinion into account. In fact they are tactfully loyal to the people and the country and they dislike the regime. It is impossible to conduct a serous dialogue between the first Belarusian President during his third term and the third Russian President during his first term”.
Kazulin – an artificial trump card for the trade
ERB: “Maybe you are aware of the events that took place on March 25 and 27 in Belarus. At first policemen severely dispersed a manifestation dated for the 90th anniversary of establishment of the BPR and then they conducted searches in the flats and offices of independent Belarusian journalists. What do you think it may be connected with?”
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “This is security agencies’ reaction to the dialogue between the West and Minsk. It turned out that some of the government agencies have already “adapted” to the dialogue with the West and are feeling all right about it. Security agencies have turned out to be useless. However, they clearly understand that they have to give their account to the West in the end. They will be to blame for almost 14 years of terror. They will provide for Lukashenka’s introduction to the European political landscape. This is their reaction. Moreover, you say that BT announced they had revealed an American spy network several days before it happened. The spies have not been found. But it turned out that the Belarusian TV was more powerful than security agencies. It was a spit at them. They replied. The opposition found itself between the upper and nether millstone. The bloc oriented at the West promised everything would be ok. The other bloc turned out to be useless. And they will be the ones to give account to the West later. So security agencies decided to beat everyone”.
ERB: “A political prisoner Alyaksandr Kazulin is still in prison. Can he be considered a trump card in Lukashenka’s trade with the West?”
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “Yes he can. However, the card was made artificially. Kazulin is a normal Belarusian political figure who suffered for his views. It is a decent person. Both Minsk and the West made a cult figure out of him, a key to “the regulation” of relations between the West and Minsk. The West will consider the very Kazulin’s release a proof of the fact that Belarus has entered the way leading to democratic changes. If the relations between Lukashenka and Moscow become worse, Kazulin’s release will allow Lukashenka to enter the Western political market and will allow him to get the assistance of the West. He is already trying to blackmail Moscow threatening it with the support of the West. It is a great tragedy because the person is simply being made use of”.
ERB: “How do you think, what did Lukashenka need the famous image-maker Bell for?”
Andrei Suzdaltsev: “He did not come to Minsk because of the image. It was just an excuse. There were other goals and I would not like to comment on them. However, it gave the impression there were some contacts between Lukashenka and a London group of Russian oligarchs. There was such an impression and nothing else”.
