Expert: Ukrainian politics’ vector may change from west to east
Irina Bekeshkina, director of the Ukrainian fund Democratic Initiatives, discusses Ukraine’s future foreign policy prospects.
Ukrainian communists are ready to defend their idea of joining the Customs Union of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan. Senior Secretary of the Ukrainian Communist Party Pyotr Simanenko has told it to BelTA.
Euroradio: How do you think, can Ukraine join the Customs Union?
Irina Bekeshkina: I think it is fifty-fifty. We will get to know about it soon – a summit with the European Union will take place in Kiev on December 19. The vector of Ukraine’s foreign policy may change from the west to the east if the agreement about the association with Ukraine is not ratified. It is also connected with the gas prices. Bug capital that needs cheap gas has come to power in Ukraine. Furthermore, the government will be able to say that we will establish closer contacts with Russia because the West does not want to give us a prospect of EU membership. The authorities’ rating is dropping and the parliamentary election will take place next year so it is all connected.
Euroradio: But Yanukovich continues Yushchenko’s pro-European policy, doesn’t he?
Irina Bekeshkina: He does it by word of mouth. However, the practice of refusing from democratic achievements is evidently aimed against the demands of the European integration because Europe is based on democratic values.
Euroradio: However, the business of the oligarchs from the Party of the Regions is situated in Europe. Will the oligarchs allow Yanukovich to integrate with Russia?
Irina Bekeshkina: Firstly, Yanukovich is trying to get away from the oligarchs’ pressure. Secondly, the oligarchs’ interests differ. Our oligarchs can be divided into two parts. The first one is Ahmetov and those who are oriented at trading with the West. The other part is connected with the gas pipe. They are interested in cheap gas.
Euroradio: Lukashenka has sold the Belarusian gas pipe to Gazprom. What is going on with the Ukrainian pipe?
Irina Bekeshkina: According to our legislation, it is forbidden to sell the gas pipe. If they decided to sell it, the Supreme Council would have to adopt another law which is difficult. However, you can deal with it by organizing a consortium responsible for the gas and transport system. But it is not clear whether Ukraine will preserve control over the pipe in such a case.
Euroradio: The Belarusian gas pipe turned out to be unnecessary when Russia and Germany had built the north stream. Does Ukraine need the pipe?
Irina Bekeshkina: Firstly, they would not be able to transport all the gas even if they built the north and south streams. The Ukrainian pipe would remain the most important. Secondly, depositories are also important. There are huge depositories in the Carpathian Mountains in Ukraine which are needed tor regulate gas supplies. There would be no place for depositories if they built the south and north streams. Nobody is discussing it for some reason.
