Russian rouble decrease may cause 15-20% devaluation of Belarusian rouble
The Russian rouble reached the level of 60 roubles per dollar at Moscow Stock Exchange on Tuesday. The today’s rates are 59.7 roubles for 1 dollar and 66 roubles for 1 euro.
The default of the Russian rouble has created obstacles to our export to Russia, economist Leanid Zlotnikau said.
“The Belarusian export is getting less effective and less profitable for our producers when the devaluation of the Belarusian rouble lags behind the devaluation of the Russian rouble.”
However, the default of the Russian currency will not affect our economy as much as it did in the second half of 2014. The devaluation in that country resulted in a decrease in the Belarusian export, payment crisis, decrease of the real income and demand, price escalation and underemployment.
The Belarusian rouble can be devalued by 15-20% because it is lagging behind the Russian rouble now, the analyst thinks.
Such processes as strengthening or devaluation of the national currency never stop in the countries using the continuous double auction principle, economist of the Liberal Club Anton Boltachka said.
If the Russian rouble keeps decreasing, the scenario may be as follows:
“Our rouble will devaluate in comparison with the dollar and euro and get stronger in comparison with the Russian rouble. However, the Belarusian rouble will start decreasing faster than the Russian rouble if our export decreases in the long-run prospect,” the economist of the Liberal Club said.
The Russian rouble will keep decreasing, economic observer of BelGazeta Syarhei Zhbanau believes. The decrease will be caused by numerous factors including the oil prices and that fact that the Russian Central Bank spends 200 million on foreign currency a day.
There will be no devaluation in Belarus before the presidential election, the expert thinks. The authorities will probably conduct it in October or November. “The rouble will go down by about 20% then,” Syarhei Zhbanau said.
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