Experts: Belarus's losses due to EU trade sanctions are exaggerated


The losses associated with the expulsion of Belarus from EU's General Trade Preferences System will not be as significant as Belarus officials forecast, experts from the Minsk-based Institute of Privatization and Management. The evaluation of possible losses due to EU's measure does not take into account the real structure of the Belarusian export and, correspondingly, the structure of customs preferences which Belarus used. The so called "tariff" applied to 3700 commodity items. At the same time, Belarus had and has now a preferential tariff for 3700 items. This tariff is used for the countries with the trade preferential status. The preference makes an average of 25 percent of the tariff.

"Customs duties vary by the degree of "sensitivity" of a commodity and are determined, depending on the output of this commodity in the European Union," experts from the Institute of Privatization and Management. Possibly, after Belarus has lost its beneficiary status, customs duties will grow from a zero level up to 3.5-4.7 percent, not up to 10 percent as forecasts suggest.

The textile industry might face a tariff growth from 9.6 percent to 12 percent. However, even the most pessimistic forecasts point to $55.2-66.6 million of losses annually. Optimists talk about $23-36 million in losses instead of $400-500 million as suggested earlier, reports Wild Europe.