Will Belarus recognize independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia?
The Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs thinks that Belarus will never do it. In Andrei Suzdaltsau’s opinion, the non-recognition will help Lukashenka be forgiven by the European Union. However, the majority of Georgian, Russian and Belarusian experts think that Tbilisi cannot be absolutely sure of Minsk. The deputy Georgian Minister of Foreign Affairs expressed an opinion that Belarus would not even discuss the possibility of recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia the other day.
“Speaking about the recognition of the occupied territories, no matter how the rest of the world is going to treat Belarus, we are sure that Belarus will not even discuss the recognition issue”, - informs a Georgian edition “Our Abkhazia”.
The press secretary of the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Andrei Savihyh has refused to comment on the Georgian official’s statement. He did not explain the reason for such statements either.
Andrei Savіnyh: “I think it is an incorrect statement and I am not the person to be asked the question. Ask the Georgian deputy Foreign Minister”.
At the same time, Georgia considers the deputy Minister’s statement to be groundless. The head of the Georgian Club of Independent Experts Giya Kuhashvili has told Euroradio about it.
Giya Kuhashvili: “I would not be as optimistic as the deputy Georgian Foreign Minister. I do not think that the confidence is based on certain information. It is merely a propaganda text and its context is simple: “Everything is okay at the moment”. I do not think that the Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has any guarantees. Anything can happen. Unfortunately, the Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is making quite a lot of such light-weight statements”.
A political analyst, editor-in-chief of the Tbilisi newspaper “Resonance” Lasha Tugushi, also agrees with the fact that the Belarusian administration may suddenly change its previous position concerning the non-recognition of the Independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Lasha Tugushi: “We have not seen any written agreements, obligations or certain facts that could guarantee that it will not happen (independence recognition - Euroradio). Judging by Lukashenka’s current situation, we cannot assume that he is going to order to recognize them. However, it is difficult to predict what will happen tomorrow or the day after tomorrow”.
Vital Silitski, a Belarusian political scientist, thinks that the final decision about the recognition of the republics’ Independence will be delayed by the Belarusian authorities to the bitter end. And they will try to bargain with Russia.
Vital Silitski: “If they decide that they have nothing to expect in the West and do not need anything there – they will recognize it. But I think they will delay the decision and will try to bargain”.
However, a Russian State Duma deputy of the “United Russia” party Konstantsin Zatulin flatly refuses the possibility of bargaining.
Konstantsin Zatulin: “The worst thing is when someone who is constantly talking about sovereignty says: “We are independent, but we are ready to bargain over the recognition”. Belarus is able to make it position clear. Its decision about their recognition may be appreciated as it resembles a bad tooth in the relations. But I do not think that the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia means that we will share our Belarusian counterparts’ points of view and will sell everything to them for free”.
In the politician’s opinion, the official Minsk should recognize the republics’ independence if it really considers itself to be Russia’s partner and ally. Zatulin considers the statements made by the Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to be an attempt of speculation on the problems in Belarus-Russia relations.
At the same time, Andrei Suzdaltsau, a political scientist, thinks that Belarus will never recognize their Independence. The reason for it is the fact that Saakashvili is its lobbyist in Europe.
Andrei Suzdaltsau: “Lukashenka’s regime has problems with the West, with the European Union. Georgia is using the fact (non-recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia’s independence - Euroradio) to demonstrate to the West that Lukashenka is not lost for the West, that he is the West’s ally in its confrontation with Russia. It says: remember it and he may be forgiven the dispersal of December 19, the repressions directed against the opposition and the takeover for the 4th term. I think Europe will forgive him”.
At the same time, the head of the Georgian Club of Independent Experts Giya Kuhashvili reminded that Georgia supported the sanctions imposed on Belarus by the European Parliament. He noted: despite the fact that Saakashvili was one of the first people to have congratulated Lukashenka on his re-election, the press secretary of the Georgina Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed in the evening that the situation in Belarus needed a closer look at. It is not clear how it may finish.
Giya Kuhashvili: “The curious and contradictory behaviour of the Georgian authorities will not result in anything good. It will not help the relations with the European Union that has already clearly demonstrated its position as regards Belarus. There can be no balance in the attitude to this election – you can take only one of the sides. Both sides will demand a clear position and if there isn’t one, the relations with both ides will deteriorate”.
“Speaking about the recognition of the occupied territories, no matter how the rest of the world is going to treat Belarus, we are sure that Belarus will not even discuss the recognition issue”, - informs a Georgian edition “Our Abkhazia”.
The press secretary of the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Andrei Savihyh has refused to comment on the Georgian official’s statement. He did not explain the reason for such statements either.
Andrei Savіnyh: “I think it is an incorrect statement and I am not the person to be asked the question. Ask the Georgian deputy Foreign Minister”.
At the same time, Georgia considers the deputy Minister’s statement to be groundless. The head of the Georgian Club of Independent Experts Giya Kuhashvili has told Euroradio about it.
Giya Kuhashvili: “I would not be as optimistic as the deputy Georgian Foreign Minister. I do not think that the confidence is based on certain information. It is merely a propaganda text and its context is simple: “Everything is okay at the moment”. I do not think that the Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has any guarantees. Anything can happen. Unfortunately, the Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is making quite a lot of such light-weight statements”.
A political analyst, editor-in-chief of the Tbilisi newspaper “Resonance” Lasha Tugushi, also agrees with the fact that the Belarusian administration may suddenly change its previous position concerning the non-recognition of the Independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Lasha Tugushi: “We have not seen any written agreements, obligations or certain facts that could guarantee that it will not happen (independence recognition - Euroradio). Judging by Lukashenka’s current situation, we cannot assume that he is going to order to recognize them. However, it is difficult to predict what will happen tomorrow or the day after tomorrow”.
Vital Silitski, a Belarusian political scientist, thinks that the final decision about the recognition of the republics’ Independence will be delayed by the Belarusian authorities to the bitter end. And they will try to bargain with Russia.
Vital Silitski: “If they decide that they have nothing to expect in the West and do not need anything there – they will recognize it. But I think they will delay the decision and will try to bargain”.
However, a Russian State Duma deputy of the “United Russia” party Konstantsin Zatulin flatly refuses the possibility of bargaining.
Konstantsin Zatulin: “The worst thing is when someone who is constantly talking about sovereignty says: “We are independent, but we are ready to bargain over the recognition”. Belarus is able to make it position clear. Its decision about their recognition may be appreciated as it resembles a bad tooth in the relations. But I do not think that the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia means that we will share our Belarusian counterparts’ points of view and will sell everything to them for free”.
In the politician’s opinion, the official Minsk should recognize the republics’ independence if it really considers itself to be Russia’s partner and ally. Zatulin considers the statements made by the Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to be an attempt of speculation on the problems in Belarus-Russia relations.
At the same time, Andrei Suzdaltsau, a political scientist, thinks that Belarus will never recognize their Independence. The reason for it is the fact that Saakashvili is its lobbyist in Europe.
Andrei Suzdaltsau: “Lukashenka’s regime has problems with the West, with the European Union. Georgia is using the fact (non-recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia’s independence - Euroradio) to demonstrate to the West that Lukashenka is not lost for the West, that he is the West’s ally in its confrontation with Russia. It says: remember it and he may be forgiven the dispersal of December 19, the repressions directed against the opposition and the takeover for the 4th term. I think Europe will forgive him”.
At the same time, the head of the Georgian Club of Independent Experts Giya Kuhashvili reminded that Georgia supported the sanctions imposed on Belarus by the European Parliament. He noted: despite the fact that Saakashvili was one of the first people to have congratulated Lukashenka on his re-election, the press secretary of the Georgina Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed in the evening that the situation in Belarus needed a closer look at. It is not clear how it may finish.
Giya Kuhashvili: “The curious and contradictory behaviour of the Georgian authorities will not result in anything good. It will not help the relations with the European Union that has already clearly demonstrated its position as regards Belarus. There can be no balance in the attitude to this election – you can take only one of the sides. Both sides will demand a clear position and if there isn’t one, the relations with both ides will deteriorate”.
