Will Belarus recognize independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in autumn?
It may happen during the aggravation of relations between Russia and consumers of Russian gas and during the large-scale manoeuvres that will not be welcomed in the West, thinks a political scientist Yury Shautsou.
The issue of the possible recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Belarus is becoming more and more important as a new session of the House Representatives is approaching. The issue may be discussed there. However, it is still being studied by the International and CIS Affaires Commission and has not been included on the agenda yet. Alyaksandr Lukashenka met the President of the self-proclaimed republic of Abkhazia Sergei Bagapsh yesterday.
A political scientist Yury Shautsou thinks that the Belarusian authorities will take time before recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia because the process of rapprochement between Europe and Belarus is still in its initial stage:
"It is necessary to wait till the rapprochement between the West and Belarus goes further so that it would be clear that the tendency is stable. Then the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia would not look so demonstrative”.
Logically, Minsk will not let down the European forces promoting Belarus’ participation in “Eastern partnership” and the rapprochement between Europe and Belarus , says Shautsou. In his opinion, the republics may be recognized in autumn.
Yury Shautsou: "The situation of rapprochement will be different in autumn. Relations between Russia and consumers of Russian hydrocarbon will become aggravated. Furthermore, large-scale manoeuvres with Russia are also planned for autumn and they will not be welcomed in the West. If the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia occurs during these processes – it will be logical”.
Photo by — ByMedia
The issue of the possible recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Belarus is becoming more and more important as a new session of the House Representatives is approaching. The issue may be discussed there. However, it is still being studied by the International and CIS Affaires Commission and has not been included on the agenda yet. Alyaksandr Lukashenka met the President of the self-proclaimed republic of Abkhazia Sergei Bagapsh yesterday.
A political scientist Yury Shautsou thinks that the Belarusian authorities will take time before recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia because the process of rapprochement between Europe and Belarus is still in its initial stage:
"It is necessary to wait till the rapprochement between the West and Belarus goes further so that it would be clear that the tendency is stable. Then the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia would not look so demonstrative”.
Logically, Minsk will not let down the European forces promoting Belarus’ participation in “Eastern partnership” and the rapprochement between Europe and Belarus , says Shautsou. In his opinion, the republics may be recognized in autumn.
Yury Shautsou: "The situation of rapprochement will be different in autumn. Relations between Russia and consumers of Russian hydrocarbon will become aggravated. Furthermore, large-scale manoeuvres with Russia are also planned for autumn and they will not be welcomed in the West. If the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia occurs during these processes – it will be logical”.
Photo by — ByMedia
