Opposition: ‘Zero variant’ for Belarus is not an option!
The United Pro-Democracy Forces (UDF) – an alliance of opposition parties – is losing its unity, in the view of former presidential contender and former political prisoner Alexander Kozulin.
“This divide can already be observed today. And, the Belarusian authorities were quick to notice that there is a certain important Belarusian politician who backs the dialogue and who is for cooperation with the current authorities and for the arrival of Lukashenka in Prague.
But 90 percent do not think it this way. We are making it clear: 90 percent of pro-democracy activists regard it as a betrayal of the interests of the whole nation for the sake of selfish ends”, said Kozulin.
The lack of a common position regarding the development of relations between the Belarusian authorities and the European Union appears to be the main cause of the divide in the pro-democracy camp. During a news conference in Minsk, non-partisan Alexander Kozulin and the chairman of the United Civic Party, Anatol Lybedzka, were eager to stress that they were holding a dialogue with European officials on behalf of the majority of the Belarusian democrats. Anatol Lyabedzka continues:
“When I and Kozulin meet with European Parliament president Poettering, with EU Commissioner for External Relations Ferrero-Waldner, we have both the written and oral powers to relay our position.
It is not 100 percent indeed, because there are differences on a number of issues. But what we have said about the dialogue, the sanctions and the upcoming summit in Prague, we have done it on behalf of 90-95 percent of the pro-democracy opposition”.
Both Kozulin and Lyabedzka object to a further thaw in relations between the Belarusian authorities and EU until Belarus has met all EU’s conditions.
The ‘zero variant’, which was allegedly proposed to Lukashenka by Javier Solana, the Secretary General of the Council of the EU, during his visit in Minsk, leads Belarus to ‘controlled democracy’.
“This approach – a zero variant – disallows Lukashenka to make any changes. Why should he if he has already been invited to Prague? Why should he if he is forgiven for what he has done in the past 15 years? Why should he change anything if nobody reacts to the brutal dispersal of two protest actions and new political prisoners?
This is a card blanch indeed for Lukashenka. And, this is not a card blanch for positive changes but for the preservation of the situation”, said Lybedzka.
Kozulin and Lyabedzka believe that this zero variant – Europe’s pragmatic stance towards Lukashenka as a guardian of the gas pipe – can lead to a totally new crisis of the Belarusian pro-democracy forces.
“We can end up in a situation when a ‘constructive opposition’ will take part in the next presidential campaign. This opposition will be even given good percentage in exchange for Javier Solana, if he still remains on his post, and the heads of European nations to congratulate Lukashenka with a nice victory”, said Lyabedzka.
This situation satisfies all the parties in the dialogue apart from the Belarusian opposition. European officials will report about a successful resolution of the ‘Belarus issue’. Lukashenka becomes a legitimate president and continues to ensure stability for Europe using the means he is willing to pick himself.
But, this means that neither brutal dispersals of street protests nor ‘black lists’ of oppositionists nor the discrimination of the independent media are going to disappear.
